I decided to try a few different things and see what my projected lines look liked using some "new" math. Remember, much like my normal ratings, these are NOT trying to duplicate Vegas lines. These are made with parity and randomness of the NFL built in. They are obviously and intentionally Underdog-biased.
I like to call these "Non-square lines", because only a Square would be laying 20+ points on the Patriots! ;-)
I know that the Patriots COULD cover that line, but you will end up a loser in the long run making plays like that. It's the long run that counts. Anyone can get hot at times...It's called variance.
My normal ratings season-to-date record (< 50% ATS) is nowhere near where it was at the end of last season (~56% ATS). I'm going to add archive pages to this site soon, but if you want my overall record breakdown, you can find it at Todd Beck's site (http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/prednfl.html) Scroll down to the "Season Totals" link. Onto the lines....
Week 15 Experimental Lines:
| Matchup | My Line |
| DEN | |
| HOU | -3.5 |
| CIN | -2 |
| SF | |
| SEA | -2.5 |
| CAR | |
| BUF | |
| CLE | -4.5 |
| TEN | |
| KC | -1 |
| BAL | |
| MIA | -2 |
| NYJ | |
| NE | -21 |
| ARI | |
| NO | -4 |
| JAX | |
| PIT | -4.5 |
| GB | -10 |
| STL | |
| ATL | |
| TB | -9.5 |
| IND | -9 |
| OAK | |
| PHI | |
| DAL | -8 |
| DET | |
| SD | -8 |
| WAS | |
| NYG | -4 |
| CHI | |
| MIN | -7.5 |
YTD Experimental vs. Spread:
Games that I can see potential in:
Coming soon...